tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC April 23, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
the company made binge viewing a cultural norm. how will netflix change your life? >> by making madmen binges a reality, they will offer streaming carbonated water killing the soda business model. thanks, ivan. let's go back to headquarters for the halftime. carl, thank you very much. welcome to the halftime show. four hour bfrs the close. let's see where we stand on the street. stocks are ripping higher now. 150 plus for the dow, a gain of better than 1%. the s&p following suit with a similar gain. there is the nasdaq behind he in green today as well. here's what we are following on the half. the oracle of tampa. maybe not as famous as warren buffett but his investing style is and it's paying off big time. you will get his picks coming up. faceoff, a blow out quarter
but some are battling over netflix's next move. we have a halftime smackdown. first our top story. better than expected earnings from big companies have stocks once again moving higher. what's it mean to the rally and is it about to resume? we are trading the action today with anthony, steven weiss, josh brown and mike murphy. josh, there were many reasons to be cautious last week. >> yeah. >> good p earnings today. are we going to pick up where we left off? >> seems that way. we had diver jenss to kusd on the head and shoulders pattern. we had distribution. these things b have been resolving to the upside. the market is unphased. the new leg in the bull stool is they are saying europe will change its outlook on austerity. here's the truth. you have a 70% beat rate. we are 20% through s&p earning. that's not bad. on top of which there is a 16
multiple. it's not the 12 multiple we were at but it's not where the bull markets end which is more like 17 or 18. if you want to hang your hat on something, the divergence is resolved to up the side, earnings beat rate is healthy and price to action is better than i thought it would be. >> steve, are you agreeing? no guidance, lowering from companies like johnson controls, i will fois tool, ingersoll rand. you have industrials participating. are you a believer or not? >> it's a glass half full market for sure. it will continue that way. the negative side isn't being focused on. let's not forget g.e. in the core businesses were down mid double digits in the teens. look at packard, they missed. arch cole missed. there is plenty to go around. the german economic numbers showing recession. china pulling back. that's not where it is. where it is now is people
believe that dragee will come out and ease as opposed to to the balance heat h rinking and that will cure everything. it may. you have to go with it but be extremely careful about the sector you're in. i like financials. with spanish and italian yields coming down, spanish banks shorted, i think financials will continue. you've got to be in defensive stocks, not commodities or in the deep cyclicals this my view. >> anthony, we mentioned the great view on the hedge fund community, how the big money is thinking about the market. how do you feel? >> it's a liquidity driven bull market. >> but the events of last week don't change your outlook for the investing environment for the near term? >> they don't. the half full market climbing a wall of worry will continue to go on. the biggest issue the market will face is that loan growth in the united states and europe is not where you would like it to be at this point in a recovery.
without loan growth in small businesses, medium businesses, scott, you're not going to see the robust recovery people would like to see. that will probably be a head wind for the markets later in the year. right now this is a liquidity-driven bull market. it's tilt up for now. >> i go back to the upper's comment. short the s&p at your own peril. murphy, something tells me you have been a buyer of stocks this morning. >> i have been a buyer. look at the news out there, scott. we are just a couple of points, few handles off the 52-week high in the s&p. all-time high. we are going through that level. we are going to break through it. look at the earnings. if you look at caterpillar it gives you the overall picture, a brief snapshot of the market. caterpillar's quarter wasn't great. you can't argue the point. but the stock was hit on the news. the ceo made positive comments about seeing the best market that he had seen for his business in a couple of years. now the stock is rallying on oh
that. if you see the lagging names like caterpillar jump into the market you will see us break out to new highs. >> scott, a quick point. i think this is important for people to keep in mind. the last 5% or 10% of a bull run and i'm not saying we are is staring it in the face could come off in one or two days. i don't think this is where you jump in and start buying caterpillar and deere as if we are having a global expaengs. every flash pmi told us the opposite story that there is a legitimate slow down taking place. i will tell you, i don't think this is the type of market where you see all right, now is the time to get in, everything's changing. you could have a quick correction at any moment. i thought it started last week. it might have been a consolidation. >> helping us today is john taylor, chairman of fx concepts, one of the largest currency hedge funds in the world. he'll give his read on stocks, gold and the other big trade this year -- the yen.
great to have you back. >> good to be here. >> you have heard the conversation and where we think we are going in the markets. what duqo you think? >> sounds great. the u.s. looks great. europe, asia look weak. >> why do you think the s&p will drop to 1430? >> i think -- you know, i believe that's not going to happen until july or so. then i would expect the s&p to make significant new highs, 1700 and above by the end of the year. i'm looking for the kind of sell in may story. >> so overall it sounds like you're constructive, looking for a little bit of constructive consolidation, a little bit of a pull-back in the summer. then you would be a buyer of stocks again. >> absolutely. the problem is we are beginning to see the sequestration stuff, comments about the airlines. the problem is this will drive the second quarter gdp down.
at the same time we've got europe falling apart. >> from trough to peak you said there would be a 20% move in the s&p in the last 5 months of the year. what catalysts will push it that high in that short of time? >> granted, i'm an international guy. i look at that and don't know the internals in the u.s. >> right. >> the international moves are basically going to be europe and china. both of whom will have to come out in the second half and stimulate. europe especially. european numbers are god awful. >> hey, john. you have been doing this for a long time. you have seen it all. when are we going to stop falling for the fairy tale of decoupling? we always think huge weakness in the majoror areas of theld like europe and asia and we are going to sail through it and it will never affect us and like we did in 2008 where china was going to be fine and we would have a recession. when will we learn that almost never happens. >> sometimes it does. there is a little bit of a
tweaking hetweak ing here, right? we will get dragged down by europe and we are looking at draghi. he has a chance on may 2 to cut rates. that will make everybody excited for half an hour. >> does he do it? >> yeah. >> 50? >> he'll do 25. more than that it will drive everybody nuts. that means the deposit side has to go below zero. >> it's liquidity driven market move, a bull market, right? draghi needs to get more in line, not so much only from a verbal standpoint. he's talked the talk. at some point he has to walk the walk. >> he's got to bring the euro down 10% from where it is valued currently to keep pace with the united states and japan. this is a big problem that john's bringing up. europe is not growing. there is no loan growth. there is sclerosis in the credit in europe. these are problems.
jawbones and a rate cut may help the market. i'm not sure if it will help europe in terms of growth and expansion. >> europe has a loan growth of minus three. that's the annual loan growth, worst the last quarter than on an annual basis. >> for a guy who sounds constructive though you expect a summer pull-back, you are buying treasuries. >> yeah. >> why? what part of the curve? >> i'm buying far out the curve. i look at the market and our signals are telling us we have one more leg down. only one more. this is it. we're looking for the ten-year below 140. >> i think that will happen. i will stand tot with professor john taylor but with the regular john taylor. >> i was looking for 150. we have 1.27. you have -- it's crazy what's going on with the rates.
hasn't europe essentially de facto tightened given what yap has done? how much better off are they? >> it's going to work for half an hour. may 2 won't do anything for them. they have terrible loan growth, ltro, money they put out a year and a half ago. it's getting repaid. in fact, the balance sheet of the ecb is shrinking. the balance sheet of the other major central banks is growing dramatically. >> let's move the conversation to another asset class that has been a hot trade. it's paid to bet against the metal this year. goldman sachs is closing out the gold short. give us your read now on what's taking place in gold after what was one of the more volatile weeks we have seen in recent memory. >> i hadn't heard the goldman news. thank you. i believe you should own gold now. basically there were two targets for gold on the down side and the quantitative technical gain
sense. one was 1400. the other was 1250. the 1400 level has held. now we are headed up. i would argue this is either a big bottom and we are going for a long time or it's a seven-week sort of two-month, one and a half months up move which is good for 1500. >> the trader's view is -- >> if you're going to have a long position in gold do you need it to act better when there is negative news? before gold broke down there was no flight to quality into gold. is that something you are looking to keep a long position on o on? >> no. i look at a liquidation for months, a year and a half. it got out of hand when cyprus was thrown in there. people liquidating gold were big. >> are you a technical trader in gold? how do you put value on it? >> it's impossible to put intrinsic value in, but it's a leader and lagger. it's a perfect liquidity trade,
right? it tells you b about liquidity which is tighter, not looser. >> don't you have to be bearish for the trade to work out and how do you square the circle with europe having no loan growth and really being in a recession. >> i don't think you have to be bearish on the dollar for gold. you have to be bearish on the world economy. the fact of the matter is what you're bearish on isn't on the economy, but you are becoming bullish that they will step on the gas and go out the other side for a lot of liquidity. gold leads it by a lot. >> gold beats stocks? if the ecb pumps like the world is does gold do better than equities? >> silver does better than everybody. >> coming up, two of the hottest shorts of the year -- the yen and apple. john taylor sticks around to tell us if you can make money betting against the yen and an investor says apple is a double from here.
revenues. ramping up is a lifestyle brand expanding beyond bags into clothing and shoes. stock off the early morning highs but up 11% now. scott? >> josh, thanks so much. shocker, surprise, believer? >> the penalty for being short a stock and i wasn't short coach. >> you didn't like it. >> i still think it is a brand on its heels and michael kors is taking share, but the way it acts with the underlying fundamentals are two things. you mentioned cat. you believe the ceo now? if you believe in the last four quarters you're down 20%. he's missed everything. >> in terms of cat maybe you think the bottom is in. >> coach, same thing. >> you buy the stock so it was up. >> you had the head designer resign because he's doing his own thing. >> new ceo coming this in. >> you don't know what will happen. it's a troubled brand now.
why gamble. it's a massive short squeeze. stay away. >> it's up 12%. the market is telling you something like coach. down at 50. it was too low. it was a great buying opportunity. are you going to see the same with apple tonight? did you see it already from cat? you're down 20% for the last year. if you bought it three days ago you have a nice move. >> the market is really telling you if the stock is shorted unless it is a massive miss you will make a lot of money in the report. >> let's go to the earnings report everybody is waiting for. when apple reveals numbers today after the close our next guest will be paying attention. larry haverty, gabelli owns 20 million shares and he's live in newtown, mass. >> hi, scott. >> high hopes? >> oh, yeah. i think the odds of winning on the this situation are very, very high.
you win about four ways. one, if they do anything right on capital allocation they have a negative cost to borrow. the dividend on a grossed up basis is 3.5%. they can borrow at less than that. they save cash if they buy stock. second thing, the earnings may be better than expected. you can see with coach, what that does and a low expectations stock. corporations are doing a great job controlling costs in the environment. i'm optimistic there. third, somewhere along the line there is likely to be a new product. fourth, i think this over ownership and index fund thing with the stock down $300 billion has run its course. there will be forced buying. you start a virtuous circle. the stock is at four times trailing cash flow. if it traded at eight times it would be more that be a major
media company on par with rerz. you would get a double in the stock. the odds favor the buyer here. >> this is a bull case but a lot of pain for investors in the stock. you among them. how can you put a good face on a lousy story? >> well, at the end of the day, three years ago the stock earned $4.4 billion in the quarter that's going to be reported. if earnings go to eight on a three-year basis, that's a 20% compound growth rate. they had a great trip up. it's an insanely profitable company with a great brand image. i'm personally hoping, scott, they introduce a low priced phone for the third world. they are only addressing about 20% of the smartphone market now with with products. 80% is unaddressed. that's why sam sung is going up so much. if they can have a product for the market, this stock is really going to be fly.
>> what's the last -- i'm sorry. finish your thought. >> you look at the data usage, companies like american tower, rogers communications, the world is going mobile. apple at the end of the day will benefit from increased mobility and data transmission. it's simple. at four times cash flow, in my opinion it's financially irresistible. >> what's the last price you bought shares at? would you tell us is this? >> part of the traunch is below water now. probably around 430. a large amount of it is nicely above water still. we got involved when we looked at the first apple store and figured there would be more of them. that was a good assumption. >> i would say so. good to talk to you. thank you very much. larry haverty. guys? what do we expect here? >> everything he said is right. you could have made the same case on valuation at higher levels. the problem is tech investors
who tend to be growth to us canned aren't interested in a company that missed growth earnings twice in a row, and look at the innovation pipeline. not great in the near term. you are talking about an upgrade to the ios this summer. maybe iphone 5-s. an ipad mini refresh. they aren't massive innovations. >> it's ripe for a beat. so much negative noise out there. >> you can say this could be a washout quarter where expectations got too low. i would rather be in it than short, but thankfully there is a third choice which is allow it to take place and watch. >> john, do you have a thought on apple? you own it? >> i own a bunch of apple stuff which i never wanted to buy, but you have to have it. >> stuff, not stock? >> no, no. i don't invest in a lot of things. apple is a hell of a lot better buy here than it was before. it was ridiculous before.
i have called a couple of other breaks like this. you know, if you pull back to half of what you were before you're often a good buy. we're not that far off. >> tim cooke's back is against the wall. when the quarter comes out they will have to do oh something. he can't bank on valuation getting the stock higher. whether it will be cash, a new product, some sort of leadership is going to come from the top. >> it is oversold but it is a product story. you may get a pop on the earnings if they give you a reason to. margins are still too high. four times cash flow. it may turn out to be six times cash flow if verizon and at&t have their way. >> betting against apple has been a winning trade and so has betting against the yen. does it have legs or will it run out of speed? this has to be one of the most crowded or had been one of the most crowded trades, john
taylor. and one of the most successful for those who play the currency markets on a regular basis. what's your take on where the yen goes from here? >> easier to answer than where apple is going. i would argue and i have made the statement about a week ago that it wasn't going past a hundred. then it went to 99.90. >> got nervous. >> i'm still of the opinion it will hang around between 92 and 102 between now and july. same kind of argument that we have in the second quarter is a slow down quarter. then i would argue 105 to 110 by the end of the year. my favorite investments are really focused around japan. >> momentary blip in what has been a winning trade and then it reaccelerates and picks up steam again. >> right. >> what about japan in general? you're a big believer there is hedge fund money going to work in japan? >> beginning to.
i think there is a lot more to go. a lot of japanese money is going back into japan as they see opportunities in the equity market. if you're a believer in the gram dodd and things like that, yap has a ton of equity selling at those prices. >> there is a pull in the hedge fund industry now. kyle bass on the short side. guys like dan lobe on the long side. the question i have for you, john, is three years from now where do you think these guys will be? the market will be higher, lower? >> i think higher. the question is abe is a ronald reagan. he's really changing things around. this is only one-third of his platform. >> worried about the demography, population decline? >> i will tell you if japan is doing well by counting the number of babies born. but the way retail sales are going there will be more. >> people are bettere'll be
reagan or ronald mcdonald. i'm thinking it won't end well. >> it's a very difficult situation. i would have said about a year ago there was no hope for the country. but, in fact, i think he's put the cards down and i think he can do it. he's got to win the election in july. if he wins, the other guys have to listen to him. >> thanks for being here. good to have you. thanks to john taylor for joining us. always a pleasure to have him. the big money guests don't stop today. tomorrow, jim chenos is here. learn everything you wanted to know about the art of short-selling and what it means for the markets. thursday, keith banks of u.s. trust will sit in with the traders on the desk as well. coming up from financials to industrials we have the big movers of the day covered in the top three trades and the s&p 500 up 10%. why oil is down 4% this year. what does it heen for the market? we'll head to the futures pits
for the smart money verdict when we come back. we went out and asked people a simple question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪
welcome back. we are making the turn. time for the top three trades. first, bank of america upgraded to overweight over at morgan stanley. josh, the chart looks good today. 3.5%. >> if you're an investor you can be in the name. not my favorite bank. a technician b wants to see it break out. it's in no map's land, flat year to date versus the xlf up 9%. i would wait for the break on a shorter term basis. >> murph, caterpillar upgraded at jpmorgan and the stock, too. >> good point. a hundred dollar price target and people saying they were going to buy it at 79. you have 79.50 and it bounced off. you missed it. the stock wants to move up. >> weiss, airlines in focus because of delays related to the sequester and furloughs. delta is moving higher and
moving for another reason. stock up nearly 9%. >> you had delta with a good quarter. historically one of the strongest quarters. you had lcc which is u.s. air come out with a good quarter. what they are both talking about is consolidation in the industry. i own american airlines, stub, the aamrq going into lcc. and analysts just never put the full earnings potential until the merger closes. that will be good. >> are we believers ta the airline trade has more to go? >> i was wrong. now i'm becoming a believer. i wouldn't jump in here. if you're in, take them for a ride. >> crude oil is bouncing back from a 1% loss today. for more plet's go to mandy drury at the futures now desk. >> you're right. hit the nail on the head. here is why it is worrying some chart watchers. they usually move together but oil has been slipping a little bit as stocks have been rising. what does that tell us about the market rally?
good question. we have griz at the anyway mention with futures and jim yurio as well. what do you think is behind the bounce in crude? >> it's technical now, mandy. there is a ton of supply of crude oil and the market has been weak. we dropped over 130r7b9 in the last few weeks. a technical bounce is in the works. gasoline prices are still low. that's great for the consumer going into it. great for stocks. it gives the consumer confidence. we are spending $200 million a day less than gas than we were last year. >> money in the pockets equals confidence. jim, where do you see oil going and is the decline we have seen recently and talk about live tv, crude is just slightly negative now. is it good or bad for stocks? >> i don't think it matters to stocks at all. it has a lag effect on the economy. it has to work into the economy before we consider it as a
lagger of stocks. stocks and crude move together. stocks have the fed behind it 57bd b crude is feeling the effects of the global slow down. sometimes very slow to negative growth here is fine. the fed comes back. i don't think it means much. as for crude i'm slightly negative. over a long-term scale the low 80s seems to be support. i'm less negative than a couple of weeks ago. >> what do you think? is oil slide good or bad news for stocks? vote on futuresnow.cnbc.com. that's where you will find the online show where today we'll have the one and only ron paul, the outspoken former congressman. he's a gold bug and he'll tell us why he's sticking with the yellow metal and isn't worried about the slide. make it a date. see you there. >> indeed. up next, what day for netflix. sharing exploding after earnings impressed the street. is now the time to get short?
we'll have a netflix show down. coming up, top analysts join us and state their case for the stock's next move. that and more when halftime comes back. >> we're halfway through the trading day. next, citigroup, sales force, soda stream? what aren't we covering? google, gold, green mountain? we want to hear from you. tweet at scott wapner cnbc and your stocks go to the judge and nur next.
enjoying big hops today. >> good news for mike murphy who's a wlooebeliever. >> it's been a harrowing pull-back. they had a nice correction of 10% to 15%. you look at toll brothers and it was breaking down on the chart. now today it takes out the 200-day, 50-day moving averages. i think there is a lot of room left. >> how about netflix today up 25% after posting a blowout quarter. the stock back above $200 for the first time in three years. some on wall street are divided about where it goes next. rbc's mark mahaney says knicks is a winner. michael pactor says no way. welcome back. state your case, mahaney. you're first. >> look, we have a business that's on a trajectory toward generating 35 to 40 million u.s. subscribers for streaming business with expanding margins in profits. you have optionality out of the
international sub business on the trajectory toward 10 million international subs. you've got a dvd business that doesn't seem to be completely falling apart. we think the shares are worth $250. we think the fundamental momentum continues through the year. >> what's the problem? >> i did the same math mark did. i come up with 65 on a sum of the parts basis. mark is giving them too much optionality on international. the only reason they are modestly profitable on domestic is they have been cutting on content spending. that's not sustainable if they expect to keep growing. if content is worse subscribers will stop joining or start quitting. you see the tipping point in the fall. tees guys have a short-term positive boost from house of cards. it happens again with the rest of the development. then the original line-up is toast. you can't compare this company to hbo with two shows, one of which they have one season only of. hbo has 63 shows over the last 30 years.
you can watch all of them only on hbo. >> mark, let's debate it. one of you guys will be right. the other will be wrong. mahaney is in a good position now. >> scott, to quote my favorite yankee this is déjà vu all over again. mark is always right in the first half of odd numbers years and i'm right many tb second half. mark was right when it went to 300. mark's right this year. i will be right the second half of the year. >> scott, the key thing is we try to look at this from the consumer side. we have run extensive surveys of u.s. internet users for two and a half years. unfortunately netflix isn't giving you as much disclosure as they should. you have to do it independently. that's what we have done. we think netflix's customer base has higher levels of customer satisfaction, lower levels of churn than we have seen historically or at least in two
years. ta makes this a very hard model to undermine. if churn is comingr from a subscription business and this is a great play off the growth on mobile tablets and phones. you have nice tail winds. original content helps the business at the margin. consumers look at it. for $8 a month they get more content on an unlimited streaming basis. it's a heck of a value proposition. that's why the sub base is growing. >> i have no problem with the fundamentals of the company. management are going a great job. fundamentals are good. the sum of the parts price target, you need a catalyst to achieve the valuation. unless you oh think somebody will take you out of the company, what's it worth with on a cash flow basis, earnings basis? it's expensive on any measure. >> yeah. we look at it on an earnings basis. there are potential strategic outcomes for the company. that's not why we have a buy on it. i want to respect those.
those would be to the positive on the stock. we think they can generate up to $5 in earnings next year for domestic streaming. $2 to $3 for dvd business. they will be in a loss for a while international. but you put it together, come up with $250. long-term we think the business can generate in the u.s. between $10 and $12 in earnings off the dom oh stick streaming. the market will pay as much as $200 for that part of the business. you are looking at optional ti and we think it is there. >> pachter? >> think that's flawed because it assumes the domestic streaming is sustainable. content owners won't let it happen. netflix doesn't charge enough for subscriptions which is why subscribers are happy. content owners want more money. that's why netflix is walking away from viacomm. they wanted more money. everybody wants more money. margins are squeezed and the $5
never happens. >> all right. let ee's have the verdict. buy, sell or hold? >> i definitely wouldn't be short netflix. the business model works. we got it. for $8 you get more than your money's worth. >> i have been a skeptic. the biggest argument against netflix was that competition would crush them. i have been listening to it for 12 years. amazon, hulu, time warner, comcast, everybody is about to kill netflix. let me know when. in the meantime they are controlling the story. >> get back to you in a decade. >> could be. >> the fundamentals are great. my family uses the service. i can't get comfortable with the valuation. >> this is a falling knife stock. a negative $42 million off and on gap accounting here. they have a huge cash berm making a lot of investments in the future in a competitive space. i would be super careful in this
name. not short but there is no reason to be long the stock. >> coming up, we'll head out into the twitter sphere and answer stock questions on where the smart money is. up next, he's been called the oracle of tampa. with more than $2 billion in assets under management jay bowen has one of the best performing pension funds in the usa. we'll get his top picks when we come back. ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ roomba, roomba
♪ roomba, roomba ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ got a robot vacuum ♪ cleaning up my life ♪ and it's gonna cut through ♪ filth and funk ♪ just like a knife ♪ dirt won't come back again ♪ thanks to ♪ my brand new friend ♪ got a robot vacuum ♪ cleaning up my life that's not much, you think. except it's 2% every year. go to e-trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert: it's low. it's guidance on your terms, not ours. e-trade. less for us. more for you. it's as simple as this.
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hey, everybody. coming up on "power lunch" we know how investors feel about apple stock, but how do consumers feel act the products now? are they still the hottest thing? government spending cuts hitting the airline industry hard. will we see an air traffic control crisis? and million dollar homes. what a million bucks can buy you in different places across the country. we have a face-off coming up in the next hour. back to you, scott. thanks so much. see you in 15 minutes. he's been called the oracle of tampa for an investing style and track record that reminds some of warren buffett. jay bowen managed the $2 billion tampa fire and police pension fund since the mid '70s. he's beaten calpers over three,
five and ten-year spans and joins us from atlanta. nice to see you. great to see you on cnbc. >> thank you. good to be here. let me just say the oracle language is lofty and more appropriate for my father. he has 50 years under his belt. he qualifies. he started the firm in the '70s. i took over day-to-day responsibility oh for the tampa fund in the '90s. i have about 25 years. that doesn't qualify yet for oracle status but it's complimentary. >> you're being modest. you have quite a track record which is why we are thrilled to have you on. what are your best plays now in the market? what do you like most? >> we take a top-down long term approach. we are looking at a couple of key themes now. number one -- and i think most important as far as the financial markets are concerned -- is this targeting of nominal gdp growth going on, spreading like wildfire around the globe. we saw last year that a monetary
policy can trump the economic fundamentals in terms of impact on the financial markets. of course we know what's going on in japan with the plans to double the monetary base. but i think we'll see europe really play catch-up if you look at the comments from the senior bundus bank official last week and the other key point here is that countries left and right, i think, risk violating the price stability mandates by missing on the down side. if you look at inflation numbers last week in germany, the u.s., canada, i think the easy money play is still there firmly in place which will impact the financial markets in a positive way. >> you think that the stocks that have been working, some of the staples continue to work, the dividend payers, coca-cola, i see you have had for decades. you still like it. colgate? >> it's interesting. i'm starting to call these stocks my four horsemen. the ones from last week, if you
look at the earnings reports, coca-cola, j & j, pepsico and kimberly clark, if you look at the top lines, bottom lines, margins, projections, it's pretty powerful in terms of safety and security and the dividends. i think that's what the market is after in terms of the big global money. i don't think that the policies are going to be put in place on a global scale to ignite any type of significant cyclical recovery. therefore, i think the big money, particularly out of a place like japan where there are trillions starting to diversify, they will be in search of the more defensive areas, particularly when the dividend is taken into account t t. >> i see some of the stock use like which aren't necessarily in your portfolio yet, unilever, ne nestle and bhp. >> we own those stocks. unilever and nest le, consumer staple areas because of the aggressive product introductions year to year.
the global reach and their powerful situation in terms of emerging markets. they are not just global companies. they are very focused on emerging markets. the bhp, it's obviously in a beat-down industry -- the mining. i think the interesting aspect there is that that industry as a whole over the last couple years, you've got new ceos across the board, about $50 billion in write-downs. enormous amount is done on the cost side, so -- as opposed to the focus being on production, the focus is now on the cost side which will help earnings. >> jay, it's great to have you on the show. thanks for coming on today. >> appreciate it. thank you. >> the strategy is what's working or what has worked will work. >> absolutely. i think some of these names, you look at a colgate, about 21 times earnings, it starts to get
crazy. >> that's where the pop was. clearly it's working. all the same sectors, we're long all this stuff, but i think you have to start thinking about the huge underperformers, start learning those names. those will be what works in the future. >> these guys are great traders, but that's a 25, 30-year discipline about peg ratios, increases in dividends, and grut at a reasonable price. that's going to work over multiple deck indicate period of time. >> we don't care about fast money, slow money. we care about smart money. >> that's medium money. jay, if you can hear me, you're a smart dude. as we move on, america's best and worst jobs. who made the list. according to a new survey, newspaper reporter and lumberjack are the worst. so which ones are the best jobs out there? tune into big today thea download to find out. coming up on the half, a boston native giving back to the victims.
professional golfer appeared pga veteran james driscoll will join us to talk about the major charity he's starting. in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
bombings. it's called birdies for boston. james, welcome. good to have you on half. >> thanks for having me. >> we've seen people from the sports world reach out in unique ways. what are you doing? >> so after monday, i was talking to one of my olders brothers. he was encouraging me to do something. our first instinct was to help the red cross, they've been so instrumental with the marathon, but after some research we figured out they had plenty of funds. so the mayor and governor started the one fund boston, which made sense, the money going to the people most affected by the explosions on monday. so basically i started a two-week campaign called boards for boston. i'm donating personally $1,000 for every birdie i make this week.
i made nine last week, hopefully i can make about 20 this week, but it's been great. it's gained a lot of traction among the tour players, and a lot of my friends and other people out there have gotten involved. i want to take this time to thank mike murphy, who is matching my donations for this week and last week. a huge way to step up, murph. i appreciate it. >> that was great of murph. james, we've got to run. we're up against the clock. is there a website that people can go to to get more information? >> yeah, they can go straight to the one fund boston and donate there. i've been boards for boston is the name i've put on my campaign. they can go through that or go to the one fund boston. >> where are you playing this week so we can watch? >> in new orleans. >> good luck to you. we think it's great what you're doing thanks for coming. >> and murph, good stuff from you. final trade is up next.
cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.